Francesca Hong Leads Wisconsin Democratic Primary by a Wide Margin
In the competitive race for Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial nomination, state Rep. Francesca Hong has emerged as the front-runner, according to a recent poll. The survey, conducted by State Navigate and backed by UpNorthNews and Main Street Alliance, indicates a significant lead for Hong among Democratic voters.
The poll, released on Tuesday, gathered responses from nearly 1,100 Wisconsin residents between July 23 and July 26. This period followed the unexpected withdrawal of Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and the reentry of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley into the race. The results show Hong leading her Democratic rivals by nearly 30 points, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
“She’s gonna win this primary,” stated Chaz Nuttycombe, founder and executive director of State Navigate, during an interview with WPR. The poll results show Hong favored by 44 percent of Democrats, while Crowley and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes trail at 15 and 14 percent, respectively. State Sen. Kelda Roys, former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan, and Rodriguez each garnered 4 percent support. Interestingly, 13 percent of respondents had not yet decided on their preferred candidate.
This recent poll is the second in two weeks to identify Hong as the primary leader. A previous Marquette Law School Poll also reported her as the top candidate, albeit with a significant portion of voters still undecided. Marquette plans to release another survey soon, factoring in Crowley’s return to the race.
On Tuesday, the five remaining Democratic candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate at 7 p.m., hosted by WISN 12 in Milwaukee. The event will be available for streaming on the WISN website.
Hong, representing Madison in the state Assembly, has become a defining figure in the race, especially among progressive voters. Before her campaign’s financial issues emerged, Rodriguez had been a rallying point for more moderate Democrats. The poll highlighted key voter concerns, including economic issues, affordability, healthcare, and candidate electability.
Nuttycombe noted that Hong’s campaign has intelligently focused on data centers, a significant topic for voters. “Data centers are a big thing in this primary, and Hong has been very smart to really make that the focal point of her campaign,” he remarked.
The State Navigate poll also revealed Hong’s strong support among young voters, particularly those under 29. Although Rodriguez will still appear on the ballot, the survey asked voters about her withdrawal. Results indicated that when Rodriguez was excluded, Barnes and Crowley each saw a slight increase, while Hong maintained her 44 percent support.
Nuttycombe explained that Crowley’s reentry “appears to have scrambled the contest for second place rather than consolidating it, while Hong has surged past her opponents.” Furthermore, the survey showed that 34 percent of Crowley supporters would choose Barnes as their second option, suggesting Crowley may have drawn support from Barnes rather than Hong.
On the Republican front, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, R-Minocqua, continues his campaign with significant backing from former President Donald Trump, despite facing minimal opposition.
For more information on these candidates and their positions on major issues, check out WPR’s Partisan Primary Voter Guide. PBS Wisconsin has also conducted interviews with candidates running for Tiffany’s congressional seat, available here.
