House Elections 2024: The Narrow Battlefield of Competitive Districts
The upcoming House elections are set to be fiercely contested but are largely confined to a limited number of competitive districts. Out of 435 districts, only 27 are considered toss-ups, with Democrats holding 12 and Republicans 15, according to an analysis by the Cook Political Report. Additionally, 16 districts are categorized as leaning toward either party, with Democrats and Republicans holding 10 and 6 respectively. This indicates that less than 10% of all House seats are truly competitive this year.
The shrinking number of competitive races is not coincidental. In the late 1990s, about 40% of congressional districts closely mirrored national voting trends in presidential elections, known as bellwether districts. However, this has changed dramatically. Despite presidential races remaining close, congressional district outcomes have diverged significantly, resulting in over 80% of districts being solidly Republican or Democratic.
An illustrative example of this trend is the 2020 election, where President Joe Biden won 167 districts by a margin of 15 percentage points or more, and former President Donald Trump won 149 districts by the same margin. These districts account for 73% of all House seats.
The decline in bellwether districts is closely linked to the rise of gerrymandering. For the 2024 elections, 17 of the 27 toss-up districts were drawn by independent commissions, courts, or under divided government control, demonstrating a significant role in preserving competitive districts. In contrast, partisan-controlled redistricting processes have contributed to the lack of competition.
Independent commissions, which draw 19% of congressional districts, are responsible for 41% of the toss-up districts in 2024. These commissions operate in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Michigan. Ohio voters may decide to adopt a similar approach through a constitutional amendment this fall.
States where one party had sole control of redistricting highlight the disparity. Republicans, who had exclusive control in many states, designed 184 districts, but only seven are competitive. Democrats did slightly better, with four of their 75 drawn districts being toss-ups.
The geographical impact is also notable. The South, despite being a major battleground for presidential and Senate races, has only two toss-up districts. This is due to aggressive gerrymandering, particularly in states where Republicans controlled redistricting and designed districts to minimize competition.
Overall, the competitive landscape of congressional races has diminished significantly, raising questions about the fairness and efficacy of the current redistricting process. Federal legislation such as the Freedom to Vote Act and John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, along with state-level reforms, could potentially address these challenges.
For more information, visit the Brennan Center’s series on Gerrymandering and the 2024 Election.
