The Surprising Rebound of Milk Sales in America
After a decade-long decline, milk sales in the United States have experienced an unexpected uptick. According to recent federal data, milk beverage sales increased by 358 million pounds in 2024, marking a slight rise of nearly 1% from the previous year, totaling 43.2 billion pounds.
This shift is largely attributed to the growing popularity of whole milk, which has been on the rise since 2014. In 2024, whole milk sales alone jumped by 3%, counterbalancing the ongoing decline in reduced-fat and skim milk categories.
Leonard Polzin, a dairy markets and policy outreach specialist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Division of Extension, noted that the surge in whole milk is linked to a “diet craze around protein” fueled by health and fitness influencers. “The more protein, the better. Consumers are all about that,” Polzin explained. He also pointed out a shift towards “healthy fats,” with products like cottage cheese gaining popularity.
Both households with and without children are consuming more whole milk, according to Karen Gefvert, chief policy officer for Edge Dairy Farmer Cooperative. This trend aligns with a broader consumer preference for whole and minimally processed foods, which has been supported by the Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again agenda. “There are a ton of really great things in whole milk, and I think that’s resonating with consumers,” Gefvert stated.
Historical data shows that U.S. milk sales peaked in 2009 at over 55.4 billion pounds before declining to a low of 42.8 billion pounds by 2023. However, the recent rise in whole milk consumption offers a glimmer of hope for the dairy industry.
Meanwhile, the popularity of plant-based milk alternatives has waned. However, it’s unclear if this decline indicates a return to dairy or a broader reduction in milk consumption, as noted by Polzin.
Increased milk consumption could be beneficial for dairy farmers due to the significant impact of fluid milk sales on milk prices. However, in states like Wisconsin, where milk is primarily processed into cheese, the impact is less pronounced. Gefvert remarked that the recent sales increase might just be a temporary halt in the ongoing decline of fluid milk sales. “It was not significant and is likely just sort of a pause in the inevitable continuous decline in fluid milk sales,” she observed.
There is optimism about the future of whole milk sales, particularly with the recent passage of legislation to reintroduce whole milk as an option in the National School Lunch Program. Currently, schools are required to offer low-fat or skim milk. The Whole Milk for Health Kids Act is expected to be signed into law by President Trump.
Despite the positive trends for whole milk, medical experts remain divided on the health implications of full-fat dairy products, which are high in saturated fat. A scientific panel advising the federal government recently concluded that there isn’t sufficient evidence to amend current dietary guidelines, which advocate for low-fat or skim milk.
This article was produced in collaboration with Harvest Public Media, a network of public media newsrooms focused on food systems, agriculture, and rural matters in the Midwest and Great Plains.
