Bail Reform and Crime Rates: Debunking the Myths
During the Covid-19 pandemic, a surge in violent crime led to bail reform being blamed by numerous political and media figures. However, a recent study authored by the Brennan Center for Justice and Smith College economics professor Terry-Ann Craigie found no evidence to support this claim.
Bail involves the conditions under which an accused person can be released while awaiting trial, often entailing a monetary deposit. This “money bail” system means that an individual’s freedom can depend on their financial capacity, potentially leaving those unable to pay in jail for extended periods while wealthier individuals can secure their release.
This system has notably contributed to racial disparities within the justice system, disproportionately affecting Latino populations. Research shows that Latino individuals often receive higher bail amounts compared to their white counterparts, and only 33 percent of Latino individuals can afford to pay bail when offered.
Efforts to reform the bail system have been ongoing but have gained momentum in recent years. In 2017, New Jersey significantly reduced the use of money bail under an initiative spearheaded by Republican Governor Chris Christie. This was replaced with a system where judges assess flight risk, potential for reoffending, or involvement in violent crimes. New York limited money bail for most nonviolent and lower-level offenses in 2020, and Illinois completely abolished the practice in 2023.
To explore the connection between bail reform and crime rates, the Brennan Center analyzed crime data from 33 cities between 2015 and 2021. In 22 of these cities, some form of bail reform had been implemented. The study used statistical methods to determine if crime trends varied between cities with and without bail reform.
The analysis revealed no statistically significant link between bail reforms and overall crime rates, including violent crime. Various statistical approaches confirmed this finding, indicating that bail reform had no noticeable impact on crime trends in the examined cities. This was consistent across different crime categories such as larceny and in states with substantial bail reform measures, like New Jersey and New York.
These results are aligned with other research, suggesting that no single policy is likely to cause significant shifts in crime rates. Moreover, contrary to the belief that bail reform increases crime, some studies indicate that statewide bail reform may have actually reduced recidivism in New York City. Another study observed no link between lowered jail populations and increased crime.
Critics of bail reform often misunderstand the policy’s objectives. Bail reform is not about letting individuals evade responsibility or enabling those who pose a risk to be released. Instead, it aims to ensure that people presumed innocent are not detained simply for lacking the financial resources to pay bail.
