Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race: Crowley Leads Tiffany in Latest Poll
The race for Wisconsin’s governor is heating up as a recent survey shows Democratic candidate David Crowley holding a slim lead over Republican opponent Tom Tiffany. The poll, conducted by Platform Communications, indicates a close contest that reflects the state’s evenly split political landscape.
The survey, executed by Republican strategist Keith Gilkes and Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork, captured the opinions of 500 likely voters on August 12 and 13. This follows Crowley’s unexpected primary victory over democratic socialist Francesca Hong. Gilkes, known for advising former Republican Governor Scott Walker, and Bjork, who has worked with Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, bring a bipartisan perspective to the poll.
According to the Badger Battleground poll results, 48% of respondents favored Crowley, while 44% supported Tiffany. Among independents, Crowley’s lead widened, with 42% backing him compared to Tiffany’s 30%. Crowley found strong support among Democrats and those with higher education, whereas Tiffany’s base was primarily Republicans and individuals without a college degree.
Brian Reisinger, CEO of Platform Communications, commented on the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, indicating a highly competitive race. “What we’re seeing here is a very tight general election matchup,” stated Reisinger. “We’re seeing David Crowley coming out with a modest lead here at the beginning, which makes sense because he’s coming out of the primary victory where he’s getting a little bit of a bounce, and we’re seeing Tom Tiffany in a very very tight race with Crowley because this is an evenly divided state, and Tom Tiffany’s been running full steam.”
In terms of favorability, Crowley was viewed positively by 43% of all respondents, while 26% held an unfavorable opinion. Tiffany, on the other hand, had an unfavorable rating from 43% of respondents, with only 38% viewing him favorably. Among independents, both candidates saw a decline in favorability, though Crowley maintained a net-positive rating compared to Tiffany’s net-negative.
The campaign dynamics intensified with the announcement of significant advertising efforts from both sides. Tiffany’s campaign and the Democratic Governors Association have launched competing “seven-figure” ad campaigns, with Tiffany labeling Crowley as a “failed executive” and the DGA branding Tiffany as a “pandering politician” with a hidden “MAGA agenda.”
The poll also explored party preferences in a generic Wisconsin Assembly ballot, revealing that 47% of voters favor Democrats, while 44% lean towards Republicans. Independents again showed more support for Democrats, with 41% versus 32% for Republicans. Reisinger noted that these findings reflect the broader midterm environment, which often benefits the party not controlling the White House.
Further analysis by Marquette University Law School’s John Johnson suggests that while the Assembly may currently lean Republican, competitive races in key districts could swing control to either party. Meanwhile, the state Senate appears to lean Democratic, influenced by retiring Republican incumbents.
