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LOS ANGELES — The challenge of declining student enrollment is not new to U.S. public schools. However, the situation has intensified in recent years due to a combination of decreasing birth rates and immigration policy changes under the Trump administration, which have led to a significant drop in school-age children across the country.
“Birth rates here in Los Angeles County have been declining for decades, which means fewer children enrolled in our schools,” explained Kelly Gonez, a board member in the LA Unified School District (LAUSD). The district, which ranks as the second largest in the nation, has seen a decline of more than 300,000 students over the past 20 years. For more details, visit the LAUSD website.
This trend is reflected nationwide, with the population of children under 18 having started to decrease after 2010, as reported by U.S. Census data. Projections indicate a continued decline of approximately 2.1 million children by 2025.
The Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration further exacerbated the issue. As many as 1.9 million individuals left the U.S. during the first 18 months of Trump’s second term, according to a study by the Migration Policy Institute. This policy shift included easing restrictions on ICE operations near schools, prompting many families to go into hiding, as Gonez noted.
“The U.S. isn’t alone in facing the challenges of demographic decline,” said Thomas Dee, an education policy economist at Stanford University. Dee emphasized that restricting immigration intensifies these challenges, forcing communities to confront difficult decisions regarding school closures.
The scale of this decline is significant. As per the U.S. Department of Education, student numbers in public schools peaked in 2019 and have since dropped by around 1.5 million as of the 2024 school year.
Federal projections, made before the intensified immigration policies, indicate a further decline of at least 2 million students by 2030, representing a 7% national decrease over roughly a decade.
40 States Experience Enrollment Declines
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It’s yet to be determined how prolonged the impact of Trump’s immigration policies will be on school enrollments. Economist Thomas Dee’s research shows that in areas like California’s Central Valley, affected by ICE raids, student attendance suffered a sharp increase in daily absentees, over 20%.
Texas and Florida face similar challenges. Texas saw a drop of more than 76,000 students, primarily among Hispanic and immigrant families, as noted in a Texas Education Agency report. Meanwhile, Florida’s Miami-Dade and Broward County districts experienced a combined loss of 30,000 students.
A June report by education think tanks Bellwether and WestEd highlights that public schools are enduring “sustained” enrollment declines, reshaping districts in 40 states. The primary causes identified include reduced birth rates and a slowdown in immigration, with an estimated $11 billion annual loss in school funding due to decreased enrollment. The full report can be accessed here.
Other contributing factors are the COVID-19 pandemic and a shift towards private and homeschooling. However, the U.S. Department of Education forecasts that private schools may also lose over a million students by the decade’s end, as seen in the data available here.
‘We had over 200 students that didn’t show up’
Carlos Jaramillo for NPR /
In Los Angeles, the impact of ICE crackdowns is evident not just in schools but also in local communities. Teacher Guadalupe Cardona recounted an instance when over 200 students didn’t show up at her school following a nearby ICE raid. “We found that a lot of them were just [gone], no longer living where they had put their address down,” she said.
Parents like Guadalupe Pineda, who work near affected schools, also noticed decreased activity in their neighborhoods. “There’s definitely less sales, less traffic, less everything,” Pineda shared.
Carlos Jaramillo for NPR /
Growing up in LA and attending public schools without legal status, Pineda eventually became a U.S. citizen. She empathizes with families choosing to leave the U.S. due to fear of deportation. “People are still scared, very much scared to go out to do everyday things,” she said.
White House Celebrates Deportation Campaign
NPR inquired about the effects of federal immigration policies on school enrollments. White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis stated that deportations help in making classrooms less crowded. A social media post on X highlighted the decline in the foreign-born population by 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026. Read the full statement here.
While some advocacy groups support reduced immigration as a necessary correction, research indicates that not only foreign-born children are affected. Brookings Institution estimates suggest up to 4.6 million school-age children, including U.S. citizens, are in homes with family members at risk of deportation.
Vanessa Salazar, a U.S.-born student, dropped out after her mother was deported. “It’s like, why am I going to be in this country that doesn’t really want my people, my community or my culture?” she expressed.
With birth rates at record lows and ICE making up to 50,000 arrests monthly, California anticipates a loss of 710,000 students over the next decade if current trends persist. For more information, refer to the study released in August.
Carlos Jaramillo for NPR /
The LAUSD is bracing for a second consecutive year of 4% enrollment declines, prompting the district to launch a citywide initiative in September to identify which buildings and campuses will close.
Kelly Gonez acknowledged the impending challenges, stating, “When your district is roughly half the size of student population it was 20 years ago, it’s hard to find a sustainable path to keep campuses open.”
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