U.S. job numbers rose by 130,000 in January, largely driven by health care, social assistance, and construction hiring. However, job growth estimates for 2025 were significantly reduced by over a million, indicating weak hiring trends typically seen during economic downturns.
In 2025, the U.S. added just 181,000 jobs, marking one of the lowest increases outside a recession since the early years under the Trump administration. The last similar decline was in 2003, during a period termed a “jobless recovery” by economists. Job losses were notable in 2020 amid the pandemic and during the 2008-2009 Great Recession.
Economist Claudia Sahm, who previously forecasted 2025 as “a year without jobs, but no recession,” noted the “huge” downward revisions in an X post. The most notable revision was in January 2025, where job gains were adjusted from 111,000 to a loss of 48,000. Only October saw a slight improvement, with job loss figures revised from 173,000 to 140,000.
The total U.S. jobs for the year were revised downward by 1,029,000, adjusting from over 159.5 million to just under 158.5 million. State-specific job estimates for January are pending. In 2026, approximately 29,000 layoffs have been announced, with significant numbers in California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Texas, according to WARN Tracker.
This story was originally produced by Stateline, a part of States Newsroom.
