WASHINGTON — Virginia cider maker Tristan Wright faces higher costs due to elevated tariffs on aluminum cans. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Beth Benike, a baby product inventor, suffered inventory shortages last year when President Donald Trump initiated a trade war with China, affecting her income. Maryland’s Barton O’Brien halted his new dog apparel line due to impractical import costs from India. Pennsylvania’s Walt Rowen consistently worries about his tariff bill as he replenishes stock.
“If there’s one thing that’s universal in business, no matter what you’re doing, it’s that stability and calmness create a positive market,” said Rowen, owner of Susquehanna Glass Company.
Many small business owners struggle with Trump’s unpredictable trade policies and await a U.S. Supreme Court decision on the legality of the president’s emergency tariffs. The court’s opinion, expected by Feb. 20, is crucial for businesses impacted by these tariffs.
A survey by Main Street Alliance showed 81.5% of small businesses might raise prices to counterbalance tariff expenses, 41.7% would delay growth, and 31.5% might lay off employees if tariffs persist.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated that Trump’s tariffs could cost U.S. small businesses around $200 billion each year. Tariffs are taxes paid by American importers to Customs and Border Protection on foreign goods.
Trump tariffs pass one-year mark
Over a year ago, Trump leveraged the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, a novel approach for a president. In February 2025, he applied duties on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods, citing a crisis of illicit fentanyl smuggling.
In April, Trump expanded to a global 10% import tax and additional tariffs on various partners, linked to trade deficit concerns. Small business owners, led by a New York wine and spirits importer, challenged and won in two lower courts. Trump appealed, prompting a Supreme Court review.
Justices examined if the president legally utilized the statute, which doesn’t mention tariffs, and whether his authority allows such trade policy changes. This case outcome will influence only the emergency-imposed tariffs, while sectoral tariffs will remain.
“We’ve been waiting on it. Nobody’s sure what really is going to happen,” said Rowen.
Trump promises on tariffs
The Trump administration claims tariffs benefit the nation, potentially reducing the $39 trillion debt, bringing factories back, and funding taxpayer dividends and child care. Tariffs generated $195 billion in 2025, a significant increase from $77 billion in 2024.
The Congressional Budget Office projected that if tariffs persist, revenue could reach $418 billion in 2026, surpassing corporate tax receipts for the first time since the 1930s. Wright, of Lost Boy Cider, argues the administration is betting the country’s future on tariffs.
Wright faces indirect costs from higher aluminum can prices, as China dominates aluminum production. He acknowledges the challenges of sourcing from domestic producers.
Costs to households
Economists suggest tariffs, while increasing revenue, hinder economic growth and consumer purchasing power. “You can’t do partial accounting,” said Wayne Winegarden, an economist at the Pacific Research Institute.
The Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s tariffs could cost households about $1,300 in 2026. Erica York, of the think tank, highlights the impact on consumer budgets.
O’Brien, owner of Baydog, increased his inventory from India and China to manage tariff costs, choosing not to raise prices. “Instead of everybody paying more, basically everyone at Baydog makes less money,” he explained.
Benike, owner of Busy Baby, delayed shipping from China, awaiting the Supreme Court decision, which could have saved her $40,000. She later discovered lower tariffs during negotiations.
The big ‘what if’
Shawn Phetteplace from Main Street Alliance is preparing to support small businesses if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs. Options include class action lawsuits or individual legal actions to recover costs.
O’Brien criticized the delay, noting, “Every day that goes by, they’re making the mess bigger.” The White House emphasized Trump’s commitment to revitalizing Main Street with an America First agenda.
