The potential election of John Cavanaugh to Congress could set off a significant political shift in Nebraska’s Legislature. Cavanaugh, representing central Omaha, would be replaced by an appointee chosen by Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen if he secures a congressional seat. This appointment is anticipated to be a conservative figure, which could tip the balance in the Legislature, possibly ensuring a filibuster-proof supermajority for Republicans if no additional seats switch from Republican to Democrat in the upcoming elections.
Currently, Democrats hold 16 seats, needing at least 17 votes to successfully challenge a filibuster. In recent legislative sessions, some conservative members have occasionally sided with Democrats on contentious issues. However, with a potential shift in legislative power, concerns about more restrictive policies, such as stringent abortion laws and changes in voting rights, have been raised by the Fight For Nebraska PAC. They also warn of possible alterations to the electoral system or redistricting efforts to eliminate the “Blue Dot” effect.
Despite these concerns, Cavanaugh, along with fellow progressive senators, believes in a favorable outcome for Democrats in the upcoming November elections. On his website, Cavanaugh expressed confidence, stating that “elected Democrats in Nebraska are confident that they will pick up more than enough seats in November to offset John’s vote.” This November will see 25 of the 49 legislative seats contested.
Nevertheless, the potential loss of Cavanaugh’s seat is unsettling to some progressives. State Sen. Megan Hunt of Omaha, in a Facebook post, highlighted the gravity of the situation, stating, “You can support a candidate for Congress—that is, my colleague and friend Senator John Cavanaugh—and still acknowledge that there is a real tradeoff if he leaves the Unicameral.”
Regarding the primary race, limited polling data has been shared publicly. Two surveys commissioned by Cavanaugh, conducted last summer and earlier this year, indicated Cavanaugh as the leading candidate, with Crystal Rhoades of Douglas County trailing. However, Powell has significantly increased her campaign advertising efforts since then.
Examining the Role of SuperPACs in Nebraska Politics
SuperPACs like Fight for Nebraska often receive substantial contributions from other political action committees. This includes a $500,000 donation from The Way Back PAC and $600,000 from The Bench. The Way Back PAC, focused on Democratic candidates in the Mountain West, is funded by the Western Futures Fund, a nonprofit that is not obligated to disclose its donors. This raises questions about transparency and the potential influence of “dark money” in political campaigns.
Gavin Geis, state director of Common Cause’s Nebraska chapter, noted the complexities of tracking donations through multiple PACs and organizations. “It just all kind of gets obfuscated,” Geis remarked. He explained the difficulty in tracing the origin of contributions after they have been funneled through several entities.
