Colorado State University Predicts a Milder Hurricane Season, But Caution is Urged
Despite predictions of a quieter hurricane season in 2026 by Colorado State University, residents in North Carolina are reminded of past storms’ capacity for destruction, even during less active years.
Deztynee Bryan, a graduate research assistant at Colorado State University, provided insights on this year’s forecast to WFAE’s climate reporter, Zachary Turner. The conversation shed light on the transition from La Niña to El Niño and its implications for hurricane formation.
El Niño’s Impact on Hurricane Activity
Zachary Turner: Could you explain the impact of transitioning from La Niña to El Niño?
Deztynee Bryan: We’re expecting suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic. El Niño conditions promote strong vertical wind shear, which disrupts or prevents hurricanes from developing.
Global Warming and Sea Surface Temperatures
Turner: How do rising global temperatures influence the hurricane forecast?
Bryan: Tropical cyclones thrive on high sea surface temperatures. However, current high temperatures in the Pacific contribute to vertical wind shear in parts of the Atlantic, reducing tropical cyclone formation.
Turner: Does this mean that higher sea surface temperatures won’t necessarily lead to more storms?
Bryan: It depends on the location of these sea surface temperature anomalies.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Turner: Can warmer sea surface temperatures elsewhere increase hurricane activity?
Bryan: Yes, in a La Niña pattern, warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic can lead to more tropical storms.
Understanding the Forecast for Southeastern Residents
Turner: With a below-average hurricane season forecasted, what should residents of the southeastern U.S. keep in mind?
Bryan: While the forecast might suggest fewer storms, it’s crucial to remember that a single storm can define the season for a community. It’s important to consider local risks.
Preparation Despite Lower Activity Predictions
Turner: Recent storms like Hurricane Helene and Tropical Storm Chantal have impacted inland areas. What should residents prepare for as hurricane season approaches?
Bryan: These storms illustrate that significant impacts can come from storms that track inland. For example, in 2023, Tropical Storm Ophelia affected the Carolinas despite it being a below-normal season.
